Automotive & EV

Autonomous mobility has crossed from pilot to commercial operation.

Tesla is running unsupervised paid robotaxi rides in Austin with no safety monitor and no chase car, XPeng has secured a Guangzhou permit for remote driverless testing without onboard operators, and Mobileye is targeting safety-driver removal from its Moya fleet in 2026 with a six-city commercial launch in 2027. The language has uniformly shifted from 'testing' and 'pilot' to named launch dates, committed city counts, and commercial fare collection. This is no longer a demonstration cycle.

EV unit economics remain structurally unsolved at every volume tier.

Ford expects Model e losses of $4.0-4.5 billion in 2026 with a breakeven target explicitly conditioned on 2029 UEV platform economics; GM's $1-1.5 billion EV profitability improvement in 2026 is driven entirely by volume reduction and fixed cost elimination, not positive unit economics; Rivian's automotive gross profit will deteriorate in Q2 and Q3 before a Q4 recovery predicated on reaching approximately 4,000 units per week. Lucid's gross margin remains negative despite 67.6% revenue growth in FY2025. No tracked company has demonstrated durable, positive EV unit economics at scale.

Software and services are becoming the margin floor, not the upside.

Ford Pro's software subscriptions grew 30% in 2025 and now contribute 19% of segment EBIT; GM's Super Cruise deferred revenue is guided to $7.5 billion by year-end 2026 with nearly 80% subscriber growth; Rivian's software and services segment is growing approximately 60% year-over-year at mid-30% margins and provided the primary gross profit buffer during the automotive transition year. Across all three, software revenue is structurally decoupling margin from vehicle unit economics, and that decoupling is now quantified, not aspirational.

Tariff and supply-chain shocks are repricing OEM earnings in real time.

Ford absorbed a $2 billion net tariff impact in 2025, including a $1 billion Q4 surprise from a tariff credit timing change, and carries an additional $1.5-2 billion in Novelis aluminum supply continuity costs into 2026. GM guided $3-4 billion in gross tariff costs for 2026 and faces unresolved South Korea tariff re-escalation risk embedded at the lower 15% assumption. Lucid quantified tariff impact at approximately $10,000 per unit in 2025. Supply disruptions and tariff policy volatility have become a recurring, material earnings variable rather than a one-time event.